Why it’s stupid to think the “refugee stream” is a good way to smuggle terrorists

And so we’re here again. Another incident, a dozen dead, three times as many in hospital. No information about the suspect revealed, not even gender, yet the world has made up their mind. This is an act of terror, from ISIS, and the agent came in through what’s been called the “refugee stream”.

Let’s stop and think about this logically for a moment. First off, we don’t know who drove that lorry into that Christmas market in Berlin. We know the Police has a suspect and that suspect is caught, but we, as the public, doesn’t know anything about him or her yet. No motives, no ethnicity, no religious affiliation, no political affiliation, not even a gender.

But for argument’s sake, let’s say the person is from the Middle East, a Muslim man with affiliations with ISIS. Do you really think he came to Berlin as a refugee?

These attacks are carefully planned and executed to near perfection, attacking where it’s least expected every single time. Nobody knows it’s coming or where it’s from until it’s too late.

Yet many wants to believe that they use a method of moving people that requires extensive background checks, takes 3-4 months, goes through up to 10 different countries, with no way of knowing what country comes next (due to shifting policies), is filled with deadly danger and where they have no way of determining where they’ll end up. And on top of that, each country that takes in refugees changes their rules every other month, so there’s no way of knowing if the country they’re targeting will even accept refugees by the time the agent reaches the border. Even further, the agent would be travelling with the people most likely to identify him, the people whose family he’s slaughtered.

The Refugee Stream is a series of lotteries, where some get to travel further and most have to stay at every stop of the way. Those few who gets to travel further won’t know where they are going, as that is decided on the spot. At many of these camps, those who get to travel further must show extensive identification and some even do background checks.

Each travel between these camps is filled with death, from month-long journeys on overfilled boats to starvation.

Meanwhile, local recruiters in the country that has been targeted has managed to recruit several people willing to die for the cause, who takes a one-day flight to the Middle East to fight.

So which is more likely? Sending someone through the refugee stream, where they have to fight off death and risk being identified every step of the way, with no way of controlling the destination? Or recruiting someone locally to do the attack?

Well, we have statistics at our disposal here. Every ISIS terrorist attack on western soil so far has been perpetrated by nationals of the country targeted, or a neighbouring country. Many of them have never even been to Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan.

It’s much easier to hide identities with a false passport or driver’s licence within a country or group of countries than it is to make up entire backstories for the refugee control points. It’s much easier to orchestrate an attack if you know where you’re going. It’s much easier to recruit locally or send someone by plane than to hide them among refugees.

So before jumping to the conclusion that the police raid on the refugee housing in South Berlin was in any way connected to the attack, that someone would go through the “refugee stream” to Berlin, just to get to Poland, just to drive all the way back to Berlin to perform a carefully planned attack, just stop and think for a moment: Is this logical? Does this make sense?

Play it our in your head, try to listen to the conversation the terrorists would have:

“Adnan, I want you to make your way through the waves of people we have spent years trying to kill. Some of them may even recognize you. I want you to travel with them on an overcrowded boat where you might drown. Then I want you to convince 10 different governments that you should be allowed to continue your journey. I also want you to convince the parliaments in each of those countries to vote for just enough refugees to pass through in order for you to get to your destination. No, we don’t know where that is, but when you get there, I want you to travel for 10 hours to a different country, steal a lorry and then drive all the way back at full speed, so you can crush the infidels at this very specific Christmas market that may or may not be there.”

“But Sayid, what about Benni? He’s already in Germany?”

“Your fool, Adnan. We’re paying for a plane ticket so he can spend a day flying here to fight in your place!”

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